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5 new characteristics of China's population
www.chinanews.cn 2005-09-13 14:52:42
Chinanews, Sept.13 - Will China's population peak reach 1.6 billion?
Zhang Yi, a researcher with the Institute of Population and Labor
Economics under the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out in
his article published in "Beijing Daily's Theory Weekly" that such
opinion is a groundless assumption without awareness of new national
situations of China's population and tangible evidences. Such assumption
may give rise to some unnecessary "panic" both home and abroad and
unilaterally exaggerated China's energy demand and grain consumption. As
a matter of fact, with unremitting efforts of the Chinese government,
China's population growth indicates many new characteristics since late
20th century. Under such circumstances, in the future, China's total
population is unlikely to jump to 1.6 billion.
After the day when China's population finally reached 1.3 billion, five
new characteristics of China's population emerged:
First, in the future, China's total population is unlikely to increase to
1.6 billion but to approximately 1.45 billion, which is the most evident
characteristic of China's population after the day when China's
population finally reached 1.3 billion. Second, transition of China's
population pattern has completed. At present, China's population pattern
has transferred from that of high birthrate, high natural growth rate and
low mortality rate to that of low birthrate, low natural growth rate and
low mortality rate. Third, China's "Demographic Bonus" will maintain till
2020. There are apparent signs that the base of China's population
pyramid is shrinking and the percentage of labor force population aged
from 15 to 64 rose to 70%. As the percentage of labor force population
will remain at about 70% in the coming 15 years, such period is the prime
time for China to acquire the "Demographic Bonus." Fourth, average age of
labor force population is gradually increasing. Last, the age of women's
initial marriage has been further postponed, resulting in decrease of
birthrate.
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